Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla reach $510 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d039941bce9896d9edbd62d9becd85d5a9bdf45fe355567342644e3e65c4561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,159$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 21c | 1,190$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.57 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 21c | 953.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 78c | 625.3$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 624.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 6c | 364$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 326.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 16c | 279.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 9c | 222.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 222.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 217.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 19c | 196.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 20c | 195.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 8c | 162.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…40cabacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…b12dbacked No | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 122.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 115.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 105.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 98.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 58c | 86.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…b070backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla reach $510 in January?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $578 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $608 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $645 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.