Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $338 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc04f7a851e840c56977448b9db9f36858dbc404cb8a8c7c5af1b2514101270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 5c | 8,126$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.26 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…ec79backed Yes | 22c | 3,030$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,351$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…900cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,278$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…07eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,180$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 6c | 950$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…7c64backed Yes | 7c | 927$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 22c | 627.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.46per pick | 18cpaid | +320.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 550.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 474.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…e6c6backed Yes | 7c | 398$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 6c | 322.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 255.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 4c | 243.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in January?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $510 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $578 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $608 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $645 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.