Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla dip to $375 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe91c75742c99ed91ea9c3929f7da8a765a5f9d765ad602f19215d94284a35630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 16c | 4,053$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.27 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,882$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 706.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 639.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 598.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…6927backed Yes | 17c | 583.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 17c | 524.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 425.72$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 9c | 272.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 150.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 128.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 126.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked No | 75c | 120.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…fce4backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 14c | 83.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…1d62backed Yes | 29c | 59.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla dip to $375 in January?this page
- Will Tesla dip to $338 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Tesla dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Tesla reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $510 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $548 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $578 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $608 in January?No won
- Will Tesla reach $645 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.