AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2025
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd298f1661f93eac60fe29b560b666cb1af92da925182bff95c2d7f813f17d655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,094$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,318$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…b198backed Yes | 17c | 4,373$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…5df1backed Yes | 12c | 1,002$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 758.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2183backed Yes | 18c | 697.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 11c | 661.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 13c | 559$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 495.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 279.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 193.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 15c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…1bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 140.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 734 | 35.6%261 W · 473 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 97.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 898 | 17%153 W · 745 L | -146.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…95a1backed No | 80c | 48.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2025this page
- Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2025Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.