AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2025
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6004a5ff5fa46f9a0f29bc9f5e183933174d8df1024189e5dc1f42cd1d5be37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 57c | 3,359$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.33 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 79c | 2,565$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.62 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…38d0backed Yes | 57c | 2,268$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,099$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,025$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 999.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…b198backed No | 59c | 780$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 736.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 11c | 661.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb133…94fbbacked Yes | 43c | 601.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…1066backed Yes | 70c | 426.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 415.21$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.42 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 15c | 401$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 43c | 319.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 12c | 317.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.17 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 32c | 308$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +208%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 47c | 304$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 271.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 257.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…63fbbacked Yes | 37c | 232.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 222.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 27c | 204.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…378fbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…131fbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 71c | 190.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 128.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 26c | 125.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 34c | 103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…06a5backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 87.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 67c | 78.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…9314backed No | 60c | 78.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb894…825bbacked Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 70c | 64.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…ec23backed No | 30c | 59.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 40.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…00b0backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…f652backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 35.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…88adbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…4970backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…8079backed No | 63c | 18.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 2025this page
- Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
- Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q4 2025No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.