TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3039…8a62backed Yes5c8,015$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.86478.5%4 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c3,548$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.4335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes15c3,469$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.416439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c3,441$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3542818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2af…227cbacked Yes23c2,948$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebea…eabcbacked Yes14c2,787$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c2,655$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.553588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes5c2,635$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c2,467$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7be0…4ee8backed Yes23c1,487$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.422441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66f5…bcebbacked Yes15c1,372$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c1,299$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.834625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,286$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.681,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes4c1,251$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.054734%16 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No78c1,207$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.0619531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c1,196$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.472476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b17…5246backed Yes21c1,169$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49f5…015dbacked Yes22c1,152$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9fa…315fbacked No78c1,128$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.642050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c1,087$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.631430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa8…c714backed Yes4c1,065$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,040$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.97135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes8c962.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c890$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.254769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes11c878.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd2…0562backed Yes2c855.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes2c800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No78c797.62$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.836944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes5c744.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.663831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8b…1e76backed Yes21c669.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c669$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.994928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ba…1327backed Yes3c661$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c46…7804backed Yes5c641.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1694.3%3 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f2…c65fbacked Yes3c576.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe920…6d44backed Yes20c556.36$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.08728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c507.77$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1836%5 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…fdfebacked Yes12c495$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes7c477.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.097611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes23c436.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006728.4%19 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a1…7ba5backed Yes10c429.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9627…c9b2backed Yes5c428.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c397.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c376.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.512384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a2c…bce5backed Yes22c353.68$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb2…9f10backed Yes14c353.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes15c350$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.53333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3785…bedbbacked Yes6c340.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes7c314.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c310$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.936626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c305$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.111442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes22c300$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7216650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6710153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1611816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes4c299.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8ed7…472bbacked Yes18c284.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0038…7937backed Yes20c282.07$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.531526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c281.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ece…2340backed Yes22c272.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c252.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8baa…d5e0backed Yes17c219.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac8e…64a9backed Yes10c202.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.262462.5%15 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+73.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7192…7169backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.333525.7%9 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x514c…2485backed Yes20c186.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.323534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa846…3ab8backed Yes27c183.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde1…fa9abacked Yes15c174.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes19c170.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.164628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x870e…9514backed Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de8…d74bbacked Yes14c145.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes14c123.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39e4…9407backed Yes16c117.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+126.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c116.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6201…75cdbacked Yes12c111.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d8…a391backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd92…493fbacked Yes13c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb16b…031bbacked Yes16c102.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No41c100.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.34860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227353.4%39 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2cef…0a0fbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7717…92dbbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67444.6%33 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes15c98.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810743%46 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e2c…ec76backed Yes21c94.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff8…46e2backed Yes13c93.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No78c86$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7226138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3533741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e9…d96ebacked Yes17c62.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.414945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb9…5e6ebacked Yes22c59.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed No80c50.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb521…217fbacked No78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.