Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bacdaac65cbe257e96e58daf343c56879ea9003bdaed7cdb8cfcd1a82121d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 7c | 13,999$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 9,655$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 6,320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…41f8backed Yes | 9c | 4,769$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes | 8c | 3,940$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…4643backed Yes | 1c | 3,572$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…d3c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,799$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 2,771$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 2,095$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 4c | 2,016$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,933$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,891$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 1,849$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…4427backed Yes | 4c | 1,807$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 1,655$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,614$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,456$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,429$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,373$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,218$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,212$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 1,211$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…4cd4backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 1c | 999.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 1c | 994.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…c06abacked Yes | 1c | 896.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 6c | 802.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 3c | 797$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 777$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 720$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…c664backed Yes | 3c | 716.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…c7debacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 7c | 493.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 490$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 3c | 484.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 463.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 8c | 375.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed7…516cbacked Yes | 5c | 315.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 3c | 304$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…b34dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38be…245abacked Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…fbd4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.