Us Midterms · resolved market
Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea7ab8c9d3ba35ac69a157f2f87ff3fefba191066fb9f3e4c112c89e1377d5f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 47c | 825.71$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 57c | 584.59$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 67c | 300.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 15c | 178.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 68c | 66.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…2a62backed Yes | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 46c | 54.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…51dabacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 54c | 29.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…ff7bbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…e741backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?this page
- Will anyone say "Affordability" or "Affordable" 20+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Immigrant" 8+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 30+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Trump" 20+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Uganda" or "Venezuela" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.