Us Midterms · resolved market
Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39887cb6edcb8d381b094ca4c586e5097fa26f9035397ef5759a3c4540798cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 63c | 354.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 72c | 110.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 69c | 85.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…1b63backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…7ababacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…ba6ebacked No | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…e148backed Yes | 53c | 22.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?this page
- Will anyone say "Affordability" or "Affordable" 20+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Immigrant" 8+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 30+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Public transport" 3+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?No won
- Will anyone say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Trump" 20+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Uganda" or "Venezuela" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.