Ukraine · resolved market
Trump alleges foreign election interference by July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57a03f188ca0191284eb50abbf01062945e33793b603ffdbdd07f4a75fd46ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 79c | 488.98$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 399.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 23c | 192.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 78c | 190.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 23c | 150.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed No | 16c | 124.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…e6eebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 26c | 95.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 25c | 70.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 76c | 67.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 78c | 20.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.