Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fdc46c7b73a4307e73534cef1f5de089928a1f0c16cbac771afec0a6c60ab68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked Yes | 63c | 491.85$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 66c | 407$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 37c | 339.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…4f6fbacked No | 41c | 307.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 34c | 249.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 34c | 191.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 151.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 63c | 147.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 44c | 128.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…85dabacked Yes | 49c | 101.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 64c | 99.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…5643backed Yes | 66c | 91.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 65c | 88.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 64c | 79.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…2ca4backed Yes | 66c | 75.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…7f3bbacked No | 48c | 60.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 66c | 44.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 251 | 45%113 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 69c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 60c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6da5backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.