Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b171d36468bb408bc016ca44de55fa456966fb53457444c6f14a41f41ba9871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 66c | 1,881$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 36c | 992$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 64c | 750$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…a1debacked Yes | 38c | 546.84$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4b3dbacked Yes | 34c | 438.13$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 73c | 431.77$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 63c | 350.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 32c | 263$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…5643backed Yes | 23c | 255.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 198.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 187.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed Yes | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 35c | 120.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 120.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 35c | 117.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 115.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 28c | 114$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…5523backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 108.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 77c | 91.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9539…267bbacked Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 27c | 90.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 37c | 89.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 45c | 88.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 76.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b57…e239backed No | 66c | 75.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035c…fa8ebacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…b9fbbacked No | 58c | 60.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 49.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 73c | 48.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 67c | 39.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 36c | 37.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 80c | 33.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 321 | 7.2%23 W · 298 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 64c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.