Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x544d0ad72e9ceb8c89f8171e532e6c6a3587b9967d5d35c8e9ab0533f3600c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 29c | 2,799$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4b3dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,056$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 60c | 811.79$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed No | 64c | 615.55$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 552.84$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 34c | 499.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 392.78$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed Yes | 36c | 386$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 52c | 314.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 38c | 311.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 294.28$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 66c | 267$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 208$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…6460backed No | 60c | 191.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 77c | 188$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 34c | 179$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 24c | 139.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…59a5backed No | 78c | 127.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 127.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 251 | 45%113 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked No | 64c | 106.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 34c | 92.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 40c | 86.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 76c | 81.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 78.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 70.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed No | 62c | 65.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 78c | 57.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…e94bbacked Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 35c | 44.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 43.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 43.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 44c | 40.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 38c | 38.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed Yes | 47c | 34.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…a53bbacked No | 62c | 34.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…70c5backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 63c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 77c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 51c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a57…0358backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…ea74backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.