Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f9e8f1d068bb6def677fc5f0642298b820a06bc6277d8b96f83bbb8dcc86c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b18…a1debacked No | 40c | 712.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 45c | 555$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 58c | 295.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 55c | 275.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…1e64backed Yes | 62c | 274.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 38c | 271.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…59a5backed No | 42c | 237.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 205.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 180.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 147.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 66c | 146.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…e7edbacked No | 34c | 146.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 35c | 134.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…fe44backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 65.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 64c | 61.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 251 | 45%113 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…9a33backed Yes | 65c | 58.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 37c | 50.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 62c | 40.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 33c | 39.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 76c | 36.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…6460backed Yes | 73c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde94…a684backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc0…bc0dbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.