Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf267f117d381c848bd3da7c1d54b993adfcb718cf7ed89ad79cc545dfde990e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 17c | 4,368$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 19c | 2,366$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 64c | 1,316$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…23e3backed Yes | 21c | 1,105$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…a1debacked Yes | 19c | 1,098$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ba…d971backed Yes | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 769$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 668.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 44c | 628.76$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 614.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 20c | 570$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 69c | 348.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…5643backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…e705backed Yes | 15c | 291.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 22c | 272.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 12c | 256.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 73c | 250.01$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…47fbbacked Yes | 24c | 217.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…db63backed Yes | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 158.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed Yes | 18c | 147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…840abacked Yes | 19c | 90.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 78c | 78.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…fcd5backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 13c | 75.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.