Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a24d873773b2cc9963b45cb772a24a3905bb8f6d64fd033bdc64d726249350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 46c | 848.63$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.67 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 45c | 306.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…3a2abacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 54c | 251.28$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 222.72$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fa…5643backed Yes | 53c | 159$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc808…fffebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…fe44backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 251 | 45%113 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 206 | 26.7%55 W · 151 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 55c | 40.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…38debacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…fcd5backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4702backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4604…d57dbacked Yes | 55c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?this page
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bank" or "Asset" 10+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Community" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Ingenuity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Integrity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Regime" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Yes won
- Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?No won
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.