Earnings · resolved market
Will Merck & Co (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb385acac7a0ed77e8def78393cbe9968061b545594d8f6fbd49ecb5de5697a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,090$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.95 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 23c | 839.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 29c | 348.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d4…5204backed Yes | 74c | 330.14$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 72c | 275$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 20c | 204.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 28c | 136$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 28c | 123$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked No | 21c | 115.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 79c | 92.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 28c | 52.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 73c | 40.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 79c | 28.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed Yes | 79c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…32dfbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.