TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
THE VISIONof THE VISION, 4ikibamboni
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed 4ikibamboni6c21,102$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.3571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed 4ikibamboni11c5,752$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64143344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed 4ikibamboni6c4,738$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.42748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed 4ikibamboni5c4,593$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.64946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 4ikibamboni8c4,096$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.712,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 4ikibamboni5c3,473$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.216725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked 4ikibamboni6c2,556$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f30…8df6backed 4ikibamboni11c2,293$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6816555.2%91 W · 74 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked 4ikibamboni11c2,268$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.278944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed 4ikibamboni8c2,225$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni6c1,820$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.11,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed 4ikibamboni7c1,778$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.680544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed 4ikibamboni7c1,441$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1338855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni7c1,189$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.511,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked 4ikibamboni6c1,105$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed 4ikibamboni6c1,029$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7113742.3%58 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed 4ikibamboni10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed 4ikibamboni1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed 4ikibamboni14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni12c978.52$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.061,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed 4ikibamboni7c806.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.812740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed 4ikibamboni7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed 4ikibamboni6c594.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.36825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked 4ikibamboni10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked 4ikibamboni12c514.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7830054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed 4ikibamboni8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025547.8%122 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed 4ikibamboni11c487.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4234041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked 4ikibamboni7c484.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4816147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed 4ikibamboni9c480.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2828544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x207e…fe24backed 4ikibamboni11c436.83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked 4ikibamboni14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni5c349.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.171,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked 4ikibamboni8c343.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.979344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed 4ikibamboni13c335.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5917443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed 4ikibamboni14c329.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1114048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb9…b97bbacked 4ikibamboni6c289.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked 4ikibamboni8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed 4ikibamboni7c249.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1435948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed 4ikibamboni13c239.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1913645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked 4ikibamboni12c231.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8815342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e5…cc65backed 4ikibamboni8c210.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.882025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 4ikibamboni9c191$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed 4ikibamboni8c189$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1220030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed 4ikibamboni7c178$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7664547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ca…a3dfbacked 4ikibamboni7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-53.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed 4ikibamboni9c133.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b8…0effbacked 4ikibamboni9c130.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed 4ikibamboni9c128.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7247548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa894…2830backed 4ikibamboni8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed 4ikibamboni10c101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.