Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8959e2056e7eefcaea2075909f14a855955471f61e7edc0fb418bf8e5907292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THE VISIONof THE VISION, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 21,102$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.35 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed 4ikibamboni | 11c | 5,752$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…f6b6backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 4,738$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…a3c4backed 4ikibamboni | 5c | 4,593$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.6 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 4ikibamboni | 8c | 4,096$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.71 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 4ikibamboni | 5c | 3,473$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 2,556$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.46 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed 4ikibamboni | 11c | 2,293$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.68 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked 4ikibamboni | 11c | 2,268$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 2,225$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 1,820$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 1,778$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 1,441$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 7c | 1,189$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 1,105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 1,029$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed 4ikibamboni | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed 4ikibamboni | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed 4ikibamboni | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni | 12c | 978.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 806.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 594.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked 4ikibamboni | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked 4ikibamboni | 12c | 514.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed 4ikibamboni | 11c | 487.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked 4ikibamboni | 7c | 484.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed 4ikibamboni | 9c | 480.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…fe24backed 4ikibamboni | 11c | 436.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked 4ikibamboni | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni | 5c | 349.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked 4ikibamboni | 8c | 343.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed 4ikibamboni | 13c | 335.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed 4ikibamboni | 14c | 329.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb9…b97bbacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 289.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked 4ikibamboni | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 249.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed 4ikibamboni | 13c | 239.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked 4ikibamboni | 12c | 231.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 210.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked 4ikibamboni | 9c | 191$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 200 | 30.5%61 W · 139 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…a3dfbacked 4ikibamboni | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed 4ikibamboni | 9c | 133.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…0effbacked 4ikibamboni | 9c | 130.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed 4ikibamboni | 9c | 128.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed 4ikibamboni | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed 4ikibamboni | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTHE VISION won
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 WinnerTHE VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)THE VISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.