Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778c65a1330ec16304a656f96caa207ab7ceeb6f5bbdbc3654fc6b93ee1bc10d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THE VISIONof THE VISION, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed 4ikibamboni | 1c | 6,092$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed 4ikibamboni | 2c | 5,625$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 5,046$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…b201backed 4ikibamboni | 4c | 4,084$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 4ikibamboni | 1c | 3,683$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed 4ikibamboni | 5c | 3,305$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed 4ikibamboni | 7c | 2,331$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed 4ikibamboni | 1c | 2,318$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…477dbacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 1,023$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…c7ebbacked 4ikibamboni | 6c | 954.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed 4ikibamboni | 2c | 796$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked 4ikibamboni | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…9e83backed 4ikibamboni | 5c | 609.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 184 | 46.7%86 W · 98 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed 4ikibamboni | 3c | 563.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked 4ikibamboni | 3c | 491$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked 4ikibamboni | 5c | 456$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed 4ikibamboni | 3c | 450.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked 4ikibamboni | 2c | 445$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 225 | 43.6%98 W · 127 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked 4ikibamboni | 3c | 432.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked 4ikibamboni | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…1f85backed 4ikibamboni | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed 4ikibamboni | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed 4ikibamboni | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 WinnerTHE VISION won
- Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 WinnerTHE VISION won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)THE VISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.