Ukraine · resolved market
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x370e77f15d4a77ae8469af825b8e94cc1535fa744fb51a65d234502b2032249e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 74c | 4,633$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 25c | 532.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 74c | 190.47$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 167.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 74c | 159.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 67c | 158.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 102.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…c325backed No | 28c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 68c | 79.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 70c | 50.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde3…7e20backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 78c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?this page
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.