Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ac42ecb571b2dccb76735ba8d8510ee6f78fc90ea96d132a11dfbb29d8deae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 69c | 1,998$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.05 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 1,618$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.07 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 29c | 600$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 550.74$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 28c | 517.12$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 471.1$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 73c | 437.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 352$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 10c | 343.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 12c | 337$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 30c | 278.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 25c | 257$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 72c | 244$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 211.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 22c | 190.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 184$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 31c | 147.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 140.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 23c | 106.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 97.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 90.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 82.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 68.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 63.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dc…bc46backed No | 69c | 52.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…67a8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…299ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 42.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 36.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked Yes | 29c | 35.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 21.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 70c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.