Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b21e4d9914de45f51a5e32246572d2059d52702670c4a6a32e354ac4c61f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3fd…1a80backed No | 33c | 1,134$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 70c | 621.84$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.55 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 483.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 13c | 438$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 30c | 437.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 425$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 28c | 343$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 70c | 260.72$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 257.7$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 76c | 222$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 170.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…1d56backed Yes | 72c | 169.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 70c | 149.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2eb6backed Yes | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 31c | 104.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 73c | 103.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 102.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…178bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 90.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 83.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 31c | 75.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 65c | 75.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 73c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf44…74d8backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 28c | 70.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 67c | 69.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 67.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 56.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 36c | 48.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 34c | 41.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes | 69c | 31.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 72c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 67c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.