Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf88334704e9781b78f3e4da3724d5db06083ad76ab32f66f16d92310e8f3c62a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 10c | 11,382$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.25 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 2,285$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…266cbacked No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 1,651$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 11c | 1,507$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 13c | 1,135$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 10c | 680.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 519.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…4d77backed No | 13c | 450.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 410.17$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 16c | 378.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 352.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 12c | 326.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 13c | 297.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked No | 9c | 288.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 18c | 280.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed No | 12c | 269.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 9c | 261.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 8c | 232.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 15c | 217.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 212.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 5c | 212.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 207.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 5c | 206.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…7f18backed No | 7c | 203.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 9c | 186.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 173.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 7c | 158.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 10c | 158.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 142.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 9c | 115.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 9c | 113.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 104.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 85.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed Yes | 78c | 41.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.