Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x283d526b2eec1663627b607aea649c1eea2440cc532c683fc119857764665cf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5037…38f4backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 13c | 3,750$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.5 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…266cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 13c | 1,898$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,490$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed Yes | 17c | 1,323$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 1,201$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2925…d61dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed Yes | 12c | 1,001$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…4d77backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 914.64$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 571.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…ccfdbacked Yes | 9c | 568.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 503.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 9c | 382.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Yes | 4c | 364.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd105…5ab4backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…e8e7backed Yes | 12c | 309.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 10c | 245.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 16c | 239.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…7f18backed Yes | 7c | 222.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 14c | 209.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb56…16d4backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 169.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 158.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 13c | 149.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 9c | 140.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf912…e132backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 10c | 113.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…f154backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 79c | 42.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 29.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.