Us Midterms · resolved market
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793791d8f549741d7c9a8f4b15249890c9d2fe262433a1baf6ceffd18c087c2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 73c | 1,312$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.71 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 21c | 1,256$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 78c | 629$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 628.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 23c | 521.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 456.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…69a3backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 20c | 383.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 21c | 336$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 21c | 330$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 11c | 285.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 16c | 283.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 15c | 283$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 15c | 255.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 23c | 236.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 21c | 225$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 22c | 224$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 20c | 220.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 215$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 18c | 196.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 171.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 18c | 165.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 17c | 122.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 18c | 101.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd50…3bb1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…280ebacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 76c | 58.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…fb11backed No | 23c | 58.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 76c | 57.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 52.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…76b7backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…95dcbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…480cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb366…c001backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de8…8dbebacked Yes | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f36…fc1abacked Yes | 78c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 78c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Brit Robinson be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Michael Kirwan be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.