Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Michael Kirwan be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27de1068819ee2092cfde78b0f521762152e544b924afc8253e0b17b5e35492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,026$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 416.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 15c | 331.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 295$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 256.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…000cbacked Yes | 14c | 253$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 154$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 16c | 125.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 17c | 122.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…e885backed Yes | 17c | 105.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 19c | 59.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 38.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Kirwan be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Brit Robinson be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.