Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3677b6ba407366fc58c24e729b4318e407773621f19886d327a3bcf01a9dd662

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MODUS
Resolved: Jun 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Natus Vincere	80c	4,938$3,937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.89	802	56%449 W · 353 L	+22.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MODUS	15c	3,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	433	44.8%194 W · 239 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere	75c	1,987$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.28	1,210	57.1%691 W · 519 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MODUS	19c	1,845$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.53	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed MODUS	20c	1,460$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.71	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed MODUS	15c	1,424$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.95	510	49%250 W · 260 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed MODUS	3c	1,344$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	207	67.1%139 W · 68 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed MODUS	1c	1,298$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked MODUS	11c	1,165$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.44	222	40.1%89 W · 133 L	-14.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed MODUS	21c	1,026$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.2	292	43.2%126 W · 166 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MODUS	14c	1,015$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.12	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MODUS	11c	1,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.72	308	44.8%138 W · 170 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MODUS	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	211	0.5%1 W · 210 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-99.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MODUS	22c	931.3$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.51	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked MODUS	25c	900$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	462	40.7%188 W · 274 L	+15.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed MODUS	22c	889.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	344	42.2%145 W · 199 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS	15c	796.39$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.46	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MODUS	13c	663.22$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.92	1,458	48.5%707 W · 751 L	+27.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Natus Vincere	77c	600$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	310	55.2%171 W · 139 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Natus Vincere	79c	569.96$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.96	177	57.6%102 W · 75 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MODUS	20c	549.45$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.34	711	43%306 W · 405 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere	79c	515$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.15	881	66.7%588 W · 293 L	+76.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed MODUS	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	139	41.7%58 W · 81 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked MODUS	18c	500$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.63	290	47.9%139 W · 151 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked MODUS	15c	494$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.1	150	50%75 W · 75 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere	78c	454.55$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	798	59%471 W · 327 L	+16.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked MODUS	21c	449.54$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.27	563	43.9%247 W · 316 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MODUS	22c	425.89$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	1,154	47.7%550 W · 604 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MODUS	12c	407.48$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed MODUS	24c	379.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.8	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere	78c	370.83$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.58	656	47.3%310 W · 346 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS	17c	345.13$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.13	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed MODUS	19c	333$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.27	176	33.5%59 W · 117 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Natus Vincere	77c	299.98$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	583	56.8%331 W · 252 L	+28.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed MODUS	23c	199.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	332	65.4%217 W · 115 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed MODUS	15c	194.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	410	37.3%153 W · 257 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed MODUS	11c	175$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	430	67%288 W · 142 L	+31.9wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Natus Vincere	79c	138.93$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.65	520	46.5%242 W · 278 L	+12.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS	17c	138.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb085…7b10backed Natus Vincere	79c	133.08$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.76	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…5ceebacked MODUS	19c	115.79$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed MODUS	19c	106.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	340	41.2%140 W · 200 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS	24c	100.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	1,164	47.2%549 W · 615 L	-29.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked MODUS	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	136	47.1%64 W · 72 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Natus Vincere	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	658	63.1%415 W · 243 L	+17.5wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed MODUS	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	807	42.6%344 W · 463 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed MODUS	17c	99.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	382	44.5%170 W · 212 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed MODUS	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	426	60.1%256 W · 170 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x409b…21e8backed MODUS	18c	82.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed MODUS	19c	59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	174	43.1%75 W · 99 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked MODUS	20c	52.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	153	42.5%65 W · 88 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	925	61.2%566 W · 359 L	+53.8wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x976f…8a71backed Natus Vincere	80c	45$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	27	74.1%20 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	72cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Natus Vincere	75c	41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	587	46.5%273 W · 314 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Natus Vincere	75c	41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	378	51.1%193 W · 185 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Natus Vincere	75c	41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Natus Vincere	75c	18.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.73	301	46.2%139 W · 162 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9195backed Natus Vincere	78c	16.03$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.53	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event