Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f9918dac5a0c12226b69ee40bd08b229eedfaa19462942b057e5a820d790d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 2,168$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.96 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed MODUS | 35c | 1,400$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed MODUS | 37c | 1,170$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.74 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked MODUS | 26c | 1,001$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.64 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 824$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.12 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked MODUS | 35c | 676$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked MODUS | 29c | 672.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 629.96$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.96 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 605$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.85 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 409.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed MODUS | 35c | 399.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MODUS | 38c | 390.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 295$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 285.58$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked MODUS | 40c | 234.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked MODUS | 38c | 162$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked MODUS | 23c | 84.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked MODUS | 37c | 53.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed MODUS | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed MODUS | 34c | 40.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed MODUS | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked MODUS | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…e3f9backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked MODUS | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…e324backed MODUS | 38c | 28.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.