Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c3e50b7e1a18e0be62a317d89bf0ed81516b6ee6ce427490c4bc0c30b4a8051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 3,767$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.14 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed MODUS | 3c | 3,650$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked MODUS | 21c | 2,994$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.55 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed MODUS | 15c | 2,889$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.74 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,689$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.88 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 1,644$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.2 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked MODUS | 13c | 1,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked MODUS | 19c | 1,406$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.73 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,292$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.56 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked MODUS | 12c | 1,278$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MODUS | 13c | 1,275$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked MODUS | 25c | 1,250$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.49 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 18c | 1,200$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.44 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 18c | 1,125$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed MODUS | 21c | 1,011$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed MODUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed MODUS | 21c | 789.65$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed MODUS | 21c | 728.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 696.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed MODUS | 20c | 666$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 635$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 14c | 571.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS | 18c | 534.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed MODUS | 24c | 530.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked MODUS | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed MODUS | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked MODUS | 23c | 395.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 373.75$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed MODUS | 21c | 329$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked MODUS | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…8273backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed MODUS | 16c | 242.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 224.36$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed MODUS | 18c | 223$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed MODUS | 13c | 219.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 205.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 203.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MODUS | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c3bfbacked MODUS | 17c | 160.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed MODUS | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…d2c0backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 108 | 70.4%76 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 123.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked MODUS | 27c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked MODUS | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 95.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5ceebacked MODUS | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed MODUS | 13c | 89.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed MODUS | 20c | 83.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed MODUS | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 60.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 60.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked MODUS | 17c | 58.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed MODUS | 21c | 50.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…bb1cbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…b1c1backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 40.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 33.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 26.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…bf7abacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…7350backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 13.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…245cbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.