Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680bbc0bc07336931cf06a646df4ca8a60b1ba423e2c58dde480dd13423fabdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked MODUS | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed MODUS | 14c | 3,241$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.77 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed MODUS | 6c | 1,591$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed MODUS | 15c | 1,014$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed MODUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked MODUS | 14c | 999.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MODUS | 10c | 769.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed MODUS | 14c | 670.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed MODUS | 8c | 529.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed MODUS | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked MODUS | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked MODUS | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed MODUS | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 11c | 478.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed MODUS | 10c | 337$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed MODUS | 9c | 325.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked MODUS | 12c | 309.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed MODUS | 10c | 308.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…f19fbacked MODUS | 12c | 302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked MODUS | 14c | 225.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…1f88backed MODUS | 9c | 206.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…533dbacked MODUS | 15c | 200.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed MODUS | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed MODUS | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed MODUS | 6c | 184.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed MODUS | 10c | 177.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed MODUS | 6c | 167.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked MODUS | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed MODUS | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…40d1backed MODUS | 17c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.