Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf45ea40c1c1dafa07037523ffce5f0c998bca21b3cfc36a28bfb01acb1451b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 76c | 4,375$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.73 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…f022backed Yes | 45c | 2,568$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +114%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 28c | 2,140$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 32c | 1,795$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.81 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 61c | 1,658$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.26 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 16c | 1,329$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.3 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 71c | 1,054$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.48 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 1,037$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 913.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.28 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 24c | 883.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 25c | 839.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 800$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.33 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 51c | 779.44$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 72c | 717.46$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.6 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 666.04$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.26 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 645.62$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.32 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 68c | 641.23$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 44c | 594$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 486.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 61c | 425.34$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 417.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.49 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 17c | 393$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 32c | 375$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 351.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 343.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 9c | 326.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 325.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.2 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 63c | 318.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 304.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 63c | 301.1$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 19c | 253.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 57c | 249.02$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 23c | 239.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.58 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 71c | 239$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 214.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 74c | 203$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 198.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.84 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 175.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddf…5967backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…4c52backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 122.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 110.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…94d1backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 92.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 37c | 91.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 91.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 19c | 91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 36c | 86.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…6109backed Yes | 78c | 84.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 75c | 65.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 18c | 64.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 64.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 68c | 64.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 26c | 64.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 56c | 62.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 36c | 57.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 46c | 54.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…c753backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 35c | 50.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 67c | 49.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2646backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 22c | 46.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Luke Murphy be the FL-02 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.