Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc45fbeeace45fcffce1898a36047a06f1124917e9fb65f59fb86162cf79251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 391$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 74c | 318$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 19c | 207.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 202.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…2e2dbacked Yes | 7c | 196.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 25c | 45.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 75c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…e84cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 75c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Luke Murphy be the FL-02 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.