TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes54c5,279$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,854.611172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c2,950$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No63c2,612$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.6821033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No65c1,639$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.6512643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes52c1,402$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1834333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes18c1,395$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.75141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes28c1,100$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30822833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No51c1,085$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.4718026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No72c898.97$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1721161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes29c841.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.186750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No44c738.01$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.88535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No34c662.79$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.088638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes48c661.44$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.8615431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No40c609$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.7418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes20c580.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.551118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes18c575.2$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No68c418$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.937338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes19c400$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0619631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No59c394.68$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.473943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c313.53$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8818237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes67c302.5$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.53773%27 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c301$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7417140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d22…e91fbacked No49c296.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes19c274.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.239343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes19c212.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.478042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.623116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c170$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.312545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No56c168$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.053046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38e…5062backed Yes47c158$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab57…e05fbacked No43c139.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes38c128.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No60c125.42$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.854346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No55c123.41$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3913546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes51c122.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.544935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes18c119.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.415030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c110.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2310947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No45c110$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.514562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa66c…8460backed Yes49c108$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes15c103.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.115445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes30c100.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.234134.1%14 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef71…4d85backed Yes23c89.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0510946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e6…c078backed No33c84.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.92218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c84.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5613625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No70c84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8222848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.912049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No39c73.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.287352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes69c71.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.081241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba0f…1011backed No44c68.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.532250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No69c66.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.668550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No40c64.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked Yes19c63.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ce…4904backed Yes67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No62c59.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.499647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed No35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.143450%17 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes29c51.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.093948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No54c51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.713333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c50.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6710340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe838…4f93backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e5…6d4abacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b0…c317backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes29c48.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+83.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed Yes46c47.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.792360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No38c46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.528541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed No76c43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.321752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No70c42.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.872544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ee…a2e3backed Yes68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb5…c246backed Yes69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes32c37.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.144639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c36.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No52c34.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.895642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce98…5614backed No52c32.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No49c30.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.552161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No52c29.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+32.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.984156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes46c27.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No70c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No70c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.86636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.064555.6%25 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06c…b574backed No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290e…1e65backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93560%21 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…b31dbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf534…5a56backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.68149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+86.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78b6…bc74backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2564…f258backed No74c19.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No55c19.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.625754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed No58c19.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.022157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No68c16.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.353743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c15.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.39578.9%75 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.