Earnings · resolved market
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f3245a41b61a6f1ccfdd5ea5f6c64e190b445cf9ec25f47af8dc55f7329e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 32c | 625.66$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.85 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed No | 38c | 458$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.85 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +11.3wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 41c | 283.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…bd63backed Yes | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 44c | 180$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 75c | 95.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 82.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 66c | 72.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 65.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 42c | 57.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 57c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 40c | 45.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…7018backed Yes | 59c | 23.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.