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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No66c12,525$8,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,298.0216651.2%85 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No66c11,281$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500.348348.2%40 W · 43 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes33c9,983$3,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.867350.7%37 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes38c5,338$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,293.161942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes36c3,919$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.732128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes32c3,169$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.5122461.2%137 W · 87 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes34c2,673$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.965641.1%23 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No71c1,609$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.147644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes48c999.99$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5157626.3%20 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b18…a1debacked No55c904.75$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes34c800.05$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.036245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed No55c632.27$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.341216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f9…2573backed Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3102650%13 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No57c443.31$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.76156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-90.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c399.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5834634.7%120 W · 226 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes37c393$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.812042.5%51 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c312.5$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20035740.1%143 W · 214 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa67…19e1backed Yes29c264.52$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No20c235$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4712949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No24c221$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9211437.7%43 W · 71 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No50c178.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3618033.9%61 W · 119 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed No75c174.54$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.482864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+37.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No19c170.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.144334.9%15 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…d143backed No62c158.16$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No63c156$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2870415.2%107 W · 597 L-110.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes60c139.86$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No44c129.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.339310.8%10 W · 83 L-20.4wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-80.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x914b…e406backed No75c127.81$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920139.3%79 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d68…6af4backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c90.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0952911.7%62 W · 467 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c89.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5116145.3%73 W · 88 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…883abacked No54c89.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked Yes49c84.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No64c81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.794238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes30c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.55957.6%34 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No55c71.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.454839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26c…d5c5backed Yes29c68.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c66.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7512748.8%62 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…610cbacked Yes33c60.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf15…91c5backed Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No52c59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.684837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No19c56.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8448036.3%174 W · 306 L-37.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes20c54.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2815322.9%35 W · 118 L-0.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid+35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6639…7a83backed Yes37c54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282425%6 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes42c48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.94634.8%16 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f55…f203backed No64c46.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No73c41.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991060%6 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-41.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7871…cca1backed Yes47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83f4…c2a8backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc833…eec3backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No65c39.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.793847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked No62c39.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No62c37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.944153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes45c34.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9815925.8%41 W · 118 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No59c34.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.053246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5559…b9f0backed No51c32.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed No51c32.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9161…fb65backed No51c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.34141.5%17 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No58c29.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.385349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…b434backed No72c28.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.571145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed No51c28.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.129531.6%30 W · 65 L-10.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf453…a674backed No51c27.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed No67c25.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.373056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdd…77a4backed No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No51c23.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.792564%16 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed No62c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes49c21.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0417930.7%55 W · 124 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No71c20.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.848959.6%53 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212034.2%41 W · 79 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x020c…f6c9backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb47…5d20backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2848…9fc7backed No69c19.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed No56c18.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick58cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed No62c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f74…fa8bbacked No70c14.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.