Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5136fea0a1e15bcafc95a951f3a652da7d54d5b9776a75a9d6ad3036d4ff3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8802…63eebacked Yes | 26c | 660.07$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…a1debacked Yes | 29c | 461.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 359$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 244.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 16c | 240$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 235$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 23c | 216$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 19c | 195.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed No | 73c | 137.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed No | 68c | 51.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 48.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed Yes | 33c | 34.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?this page
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.