TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yellow Submarineof MOUZ, Yellow Submarine
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ61c32,605$19,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,933.151,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Yellow Submarine61c17,588$10,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,828.0271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ35c11,175$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.031,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Yellow Submarine37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.9847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Yellow Submarine41c9,426$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,577.741,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Yellow Submarine66c5,050$3,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.8530667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ60c4,651$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.2450850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Yellow Submarine40c3,253$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.0989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ59c3,182$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.1741056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Yellow Submarine37c2,748$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.9525150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Yellow Submarine63c2,712$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.1533453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked MOUZ64c2,500$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed MOUZ62c2,183$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.915051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Yellow Submarine44c2,181$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.9638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Yellow Submarine42c2,155$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.1539042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked MOUZ61c2,141$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.0779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Yellow Submarine38c2,106$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.5399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Yellow Submarine47c2,021$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.2822461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MOUZ45c1,997$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.181,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Yellow Submarine35c1,989$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.7333867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Yellow Submarine45c1,859$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.371,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Yellow Submarine37c1,782$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.6626540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed MOUZ57c1,666$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Yellow Submarine41c1,347$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.846741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed Yellow Submarine36c1,344$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.913627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…9d0bbacked Yellow Submarine36c1,322$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine43c1,292$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.011,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Yellow Submarine39c1,204$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.5929243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed MOUZ64c1,202$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.513151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yellow Submarine38c1,188$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.8628341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed MOUZ55c1,096$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.810051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed MOUZ5c1,084$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Yellow Submarine59c1,074$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.4422031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ63c1,065$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.0260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Yellow Submarine71c1,044$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.3820030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked MOUZ56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56019338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MOUZ1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed MOUZ58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Yellow Submarine41c965.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.951,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yellow Submarine37c949.99$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.51,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked MOUZ66c945.63$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.727060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed MOUZ64c876.56$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5613762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed MOUZ58c866.53$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine46c815.18$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ50c804.23$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.591,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Yellow Submarine55c801.06$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.5592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed MOUZ63c799.95$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.975853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed MOUZ59c771.99$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.4815639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Yellow Submarine39c750$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.516147.2%76 W · 85 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Yellow Submarine41c699.99$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41357449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Yellow Submarine42c693.01$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.261449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ56c689.39$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.011,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Yellow Submarine38c684.04$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.854434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Yellow Submarine39c669.31$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.0714538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yellow Submarine39c626.92$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4871143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed MOUZ63c602.72$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.5317451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Yellow Submarine62c593.54$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.260251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked MOUZ63c587.61$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.989344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yellow Submarine53c578.52$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ30c512.97$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.341,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yellow Submarine38c500.1$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0619643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ33c500$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6745352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed MOUZ63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.937655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yellow Submarine40c499.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9845457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed MOUZ68c489.71$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33319251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Yellow Submarine37c421.68$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Yellow Submarine32c415.22$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.3588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed MOUZ50c400$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yellow Submarine48c384.94$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.4693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Yellow Submarine38c363.7$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.757735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…dea7backed MOUZ29c357.45$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.561136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed MOUZ9c349.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Yellow Submarine37c349.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.499352.7%49 W · 44 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ23c344$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.631,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ46c340.48$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed MOUZ63c333.46$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1637252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Yellow Submarine42c327.49$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5331953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0452…843cbacked Yellow Submarine71c324.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.023253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ67c323.99$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked MOUZ65c321$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.653650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed MOUZ36c309.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.952046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked MOUZ61c307$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18820452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Yellow Submarine71c304.27$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked MOUZ59c304$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.361838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yellow Submarine37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda45…a2c6backed MOUZ63c300$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed MOUZ63c291.52$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18320949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Yellow Submarine61c285.77$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.856343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Yellow Submarine39c285.25$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Yellow Submarine44c279.86$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9233041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed MOUZ10c264.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.253323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ47c260$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.61,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Yellow Submarine39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4124244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Yellow Submarine40c250.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8346049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Yellow Submarine39c248$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2813941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454a…0f14backed MOUZ57c247.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.52842.9%12 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-29.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yellow Submarine36c244.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9832441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ed…41b2backed MOUZ66c239.26$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.916764.2%43 W · 24 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.