Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4a5874b5c8ad2a4953153aa621842016a6ed9a5e0c58e2f850a52da4cdeb36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof MOUZ, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed MOUZ | 38c | 6,562$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 2,418$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.64 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed MOUZ | 37c | 402.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yellow Submarine | 62c | 319.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 241.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed MOUZ | 37c | 179.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MOUZ | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 118.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed MOUZ | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 88.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MOUZ | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked MOUZ | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 45.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed MOUZ | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 30.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Yellow Submarine | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed MOUZ | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?Yes won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.