Movies · resolved market
Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285bf1c6c679f7e4e72a647379c72e14ee19b9718a7cdb610cb17345008de7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,210$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.34 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 1,198$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 42c | 920.76$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.74 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 52c | 785.92$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.14 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 18c | 714.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.81 | 248 | 21.8%54 W · 194 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 67c | 698.85$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.73 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 62c | 641.2$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 549.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.12 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 512.3$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 480.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 470$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 59c | 464.6$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…e680backed No | 63c | 414.46$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 396.76$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.09 | 112 | 36.6%41 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 390.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…0f96backed Yes | 58c | 360.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 37c | 320.72$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…46c0backed Yes | 49c | 318.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 72c | 312.15$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 303.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…062abacked Yes | 67c | 297.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed Yes | 30c | 283.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 47c | 280$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 29c | 278.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 26c | 271.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 269.81$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 222.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 58c | 191.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 180.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 68c | 173.29$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 35c | 145.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 63c | 128.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 126.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 18c | 125.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 119.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 17c | 119.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…cf02backed Yes | 48c | 99.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 69c | 92.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 91.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 32c | 90.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 89.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 63c | 85.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 77.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 52.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 232 | 30.6%71 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 54c | 46.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 73c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 29c | 40.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 37c | 37.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 60c | 37.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 58c | 31.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…3a43backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 24.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 22.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?this page
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 34m?No won
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?No won
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?No won
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.