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Movies · resolved market

Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9aeb…2729backed No29c9,192$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,559.0919347.2%91 W · 102 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes50c7,127$3,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.3930523%70 W · 235 L-1.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes35c6,657$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.3730242.4%128 W · 174 L+21.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes65c3,407$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.8524239.7%96 W · 146 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes59c2,272$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.1733438.9%130 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked No28c2,200$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes53c1,999$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.6924821.8%54 W · 194 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed No37c1,729$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No30c1,471$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.91608.3%5 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c1,132$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.669125.3%23 W · 68 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd683…3c0cbacked No30c1,100$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No53c1,090$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.491741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010649.1%52 W · 54 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7056…c95cbacked No39c838.81$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.393262.5%20 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+73.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes62c705.79$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.878947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes44c656.66$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2611833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes65c649.18$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6915749%77 W · 80 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes43c612.63$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.369334.4%32 W · 61 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes40c593.45$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1817837.6%67 W · 111 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b1…ac9abacked No32c592.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed No32c581.74$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No26c548.36$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.19812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No71c524$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cc…c7e9backed No39c512.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c511.46$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.087634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed Yes73c472.39$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No23c422.73$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.12142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16048028.5%137 W · 343 L-33.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes65c379.77$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.645749.1%28 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed No32c358.3$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.1330436.2%110 W · 194 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c348.22$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3811236.6%41 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No30c340.15$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9311245.5%51 W · 61 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c33…259abacked No15c338$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No50c313.62$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.083946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bb…385bbacked No15c304.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+306.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes78c300.34$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.416349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0019…6629backed No38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed No35c291.38$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.065038%19 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No42c275.81$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8120334%69 W · 134 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No74c271.85$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.08933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes66c265.15$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17527130.6%83 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes46c261.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.094047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e04…143dbacked No40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes59c239.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.793450%17 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No67c226.75$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.094045%18 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No27c226$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6211040.9%45 W · 65 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes45c219.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914830.4%45 W · 103 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No50c217.8$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Yes65c216.93$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes62c214.78$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.138058.8%47 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3a6…9964backed No22c209.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+156.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa9…22ebbacked No11c193$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed Yes11c165$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8536…3da3backed Yes52c155.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No36c154$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+74.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked No66c151.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.13243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No37c149.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.739138.5%35 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c144$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7588533.6%297 W · 588 L-76.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed Yes40c133.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.673959%23 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No15c131.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked Yes52c125.61$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+68.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No44c124.05$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.063540%14 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No27c123.26$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.173658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No38c123.17$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9510941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6163…07a3backed Yes54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.22828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes42c118.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.849262%57 W · 35 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed No28c118.77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.182450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes44c108.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.494143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked No57c104.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453016.7%5 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes80c96.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.574833.3%16 W · 32 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-49.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes66c94.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0514136.2%51 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cf…4c49backed No13c94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No54c92.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bf…4bd1backed No28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No13c80$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.69053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked No49c79.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7811622.4%26 W · 90 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5814135.5%50 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba9…2210backed Yes51c77.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.23444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes54c74.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5c…2ee3backed No40c72.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No53c71.64$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.673452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c65.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2114537.2%54 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbbc…c072backed No74c63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No58c62.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.043850%19 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c59.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.831,4158%113 W · 1,302 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked No57c53.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.058834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x114a…46c0backed Yes45c49.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.282138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes65c48.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5311229.5%33 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No40c45.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.653548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed No45c44.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.074017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2210751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.24050%20 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0d0…0a38backed Yes50c39.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c37…a324backed No48c37.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.