Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5019b62cf1b4874cfd95d06296acf5308c72a1d1100a745c2bc21d9e79d45b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 74c | 7,531$5,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.05 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 30c | 6,439$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 73c | 1,835$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 76c | 1,718$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.27 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 78c | 1,398$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.62 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 11c | 1,336$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Up | 41c | 1,234$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.91 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 18c | 1,232$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 77c | 1,166$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 61c | 1,110$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.8 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Up | 19c | 1,030$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 43c | 1,012$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.16 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked Up | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 21c | 893.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 27c | 750$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 46c | 599.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6af3…2360backed Down | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Down | 76c | 477.23$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Up | 51c | 472.82$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 6c | 469.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 52c | 420.2$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Down | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Up | 41c | 390$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Up | 6c | 360.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8173…c0f0backed Up | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Up | 46c | 350.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 42c | 312.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 75c | 267.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 8c | 256.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Down | 79c | 205$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…e2b1backed Up | 18c | 201$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Up | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…c5f7backed Down | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 66c | 176.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 43c | 169$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked Up | 19c | 160.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…1177backed Down | 73c | 135.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Up | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…558bbacked Down | 77c | 96.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 26c | 80.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…1739backed Down | 66c | 80.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Down | 47c | 68.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…c41ebacked Up | 30c | 66.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Up | 42c | 50.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…8f76backed Down | 56c | 49.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Up | 41c | 49.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Up | 39c | 33.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Down | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 59c | 22.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Down | 60c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…8deabacked Down | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.