Middle East · resolved market
Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f41ffff2d255d7c3ed446575259a621ffdf59b7372fc7db2db317e898f3dbea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 49c | 1,016$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.46 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 29c | 784.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.55 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 742$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 61c | 399.93$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 65c | 390.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 38c | 340$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 61c | 300$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.65 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 29c | 290.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 52c | 257.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 180.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 56c | 136.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 38c | 119.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 118.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 48c | 78.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…78ddbacked No | 25c | 60.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes | 75c | 54.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 38c | 40.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39cd…1650backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…757dbacked No | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…acb2backed No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…cf94backed No | 75c | 36.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…40a1backed Yes | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…976abacked No | 46c | 32.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…f2d4backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…913cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.