Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Francesca Hong win Milwaukee County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5c37911d41fc7ee8f47cd83f0542b1c7c12b3165d776f0fdd8af3efb9eda5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed No | 34c | 687.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 49c | 418.4$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 63c | 331.82$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 67c | 301.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 234.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 39c | 222$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 66c | 180.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked No | 22c | 91.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 68c | 89.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 32c | 87.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 63.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed No | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 34c | 39.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 71c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 66c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…7083backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Francesca Hong win Milwaukee County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?this page
- Will David Crowley win Milwaukee County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.