Earnings · resolved market
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b585d2cfb2b8aab8998fe1e4d2eb7750c5712599b8c5604f3daa26dcbda610b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 33c | 429.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 57c | 242.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…52c2backed Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 61c | 180$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 56c | 176.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 29c | 170$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 77c | 141.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 79c | 108.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 61c | 96.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 96.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 96.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844f…e2edbacked Yes | 77c | 94.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 51c | 84.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 24c | 84.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 27c | 77.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 61.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 73c | 59.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 37c | 50.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Yes | 59c | 28.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 48c | 26.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 73c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.