Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa259bc90300f28dc8571568dbd2e13c7d01345a8cdc81e733eb624a7a44679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 44c | 2,501$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 27c | 1,400$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 14c | 1,232$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,224$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.43 | 155 | 22.6%35 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 76c | 1,201$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.82 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 21c | 672.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 54c | 591.16$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 520$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.35 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 44c | 517.56$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.09 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 433.34$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.15 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 29c | 350.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 319.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 295.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 290.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.71 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…0d6bbacked Yes | 23c | 243.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…1ec7backed Yes | 7c | 240.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +128%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 13c | 157.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.27 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 24c | 131.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 118.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 31c | 118.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 25c | 90.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 41c | 87.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…ed31backed No | 70c | 81.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 74c | 77.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 65.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 62.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 173 | 52.6%91 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 51.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 49.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 78c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.