Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59ba8078f7bcb3ec37b2083f5b6628268a7a1010664922f2a28a6fcca7fec18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 26c | 8,627$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.12 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 10c | 7,410$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 74c | 7,302$5,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.85 | 173 | 52.6%91 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 15c | 4,137$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.69 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 69c | 3,164$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.19 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 2,625$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.25 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 19c | 2,184$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.96 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…9c9cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,079$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 976.07$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.21 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 793.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 54c | 785.34$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 702.93$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 643.86$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 28c | 640$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 6c | 517.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…f1b0backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 64c | 490.14$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 425.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 415.76$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 406.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 26c | 382.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 75c | 374.19$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 45c | 291.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 76c | 289$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 78c | 266.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 242.1$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 57c | 223.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 30c | 206.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 75c | 205.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 201.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked No | 71c | 193.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 19c | 186.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 56c | 177.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 175.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…f617backed Yes | 10c | 167.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 20c | 166.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 165$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 62c | 159.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 25c | 148.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed Yes | 26c | 145.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 26c | 139.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked Yes | 26c | 136.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 26c | 135.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed No | 79c | 126.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 19c | 124$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…6555backed No | 76c | 122.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…61cebacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 107.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 106.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 100.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…e74cbacked No | 71c | 95.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 94.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 28c | 91.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 26c | 86.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Yes | 26c | 86.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 24c | 80.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 79.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 73c | 74.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 65.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…1b6ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 74c | 57.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 34c | 55.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 74c | 51.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 71c | 44.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 43.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…32abbacked Yes | 58c | 43.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f87bbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…4648backed No | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Yes | 30c | 33.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…6316backed No | 67c | 32.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…bd9ebacked No | 76c | 24.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 55c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Yes won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.