Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1911a493884ab82b3175c779e1c0ae5fbbc9cc9469ca333a613028132209e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8eb1…85b8backed Yes | 27c | 1,242$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 13c | 888.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 15c | 692.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 3c | 557.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 18c | 499.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 495.53$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 419.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed Yes | 24c | 274.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 16c | 249.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 74c | 241.32$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…ca31backed Yes | 35c | 208.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 14c | 186.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 159.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 153$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 152.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 64c | 77.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Yes won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.