Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d4a267f29c9a01c6c23f5d4e2eb4b2a44337f859d185a39b4fd852da91d599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 8c | 11,466$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.62 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 15c | 6,544$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.85 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…f1b0backed Yes | 4c | 4,483$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 68c | 3,273$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.7 | 173 | 52.6%91 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 74c | 1,716$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.57 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 1,502$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…ed31backed Yes | 14c | 1,447$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…1ec7backed Yes | 28c | 1,187$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +128%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…6f20backed Yes | 19c | 978.44$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 15c | 900$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 27c | 720$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…9c9cbacked Yes | 16c | 700.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 437.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 29c | 421.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 19c | 365.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 363.56$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…8a17backed Yes | 18c | 344.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 12c | 301.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 16c | 254.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 235$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 23c | 171.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 21c | 162.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 42c | 155$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 142.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Yes | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d5fbacked Yes | 26c | 134.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…9d77backed Yes | 20c | 120.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 21c | 113.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 110.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 107.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 105.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 16c | 102.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 15c | 99.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 42c | 87.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 80c | 77.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 20c | 75.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 16c | 65.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…94d8backed Yes | 27c | 58.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 32c | 56.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…3e8fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 23c | 51.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 29c | 44.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 26c | 43.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 74c | 35.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 36c | 32.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 50c | 27.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…b046backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 69c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?No won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Yes won
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?No won
- Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.