UFC · resolved market
Will Dricus Du Plessis win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc93a61d5775c4477e3f7c55966faa5052ceea5ef28eea9d6e40aa436d452eef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 64c | 2,614$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.61 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 61c | 2,364$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.4 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 37c | 1,890$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 942.88$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.18 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Yes | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 67c | 600.71$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…9adabacked Yes | 58c | 597$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 68c | 555.37$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 55c | 515.29$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.41 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed8…7559backed No | 73c | 474.15$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 60c | 427.7$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 67c | 376.49$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 33c | 334.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 52c | 331.32$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Yes | 33c | 292.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Yes | 68c | 290$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 69c | 217.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…db33backed Yes | 32c | 207.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed No | 70c | 197.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 54c | 196.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 38c | 194.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 64c | 154.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed Yes | 52c | 153.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…5e92backed Yes | 34c | 145.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 29c | 140.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…35c0backed No | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…6bd2backed Yes | 18c | 127.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 31c | 127.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 38c | 106.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…94cabacked Yes | 35c | 99.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…c99abacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 62c | 75.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09e…98babacked Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db8…f6a7backed Yes | 33c | 71.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e7…6bc0backed Yes | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3386…8e59backed No | 70c | 60.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes | 31c | 60.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…78e9backed Yes | 34c | 59.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…2a32backed Yes | 36c | 55.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Yes | 51c | 46.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…c234backed Yes | 71c | 41.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…e5a1backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 40.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 67c | 40.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…fe81backed Yes | 32c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe095…1af6backed Yes | 38c | 38.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0b…099cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…81dbbacked No | 59c | 28.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 25.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 63c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 71c | 19.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dricus Du Plessis win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)Dricus Du Plessis won
- Will Kamaru Usman win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.