UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddbfc9eed9e702a9c3d41be6065f033cd1f8cd14cd3b2a3db6a076a74e7eed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 1,070$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 13c | 865.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 14c | 857.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 15c | 665.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…237ebacked Yes | 15c | 325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…fa2fbacked Yes | 13c | 287.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes | 13c | 228.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Yes | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…6980backed Yes | 11c | 177.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 17c | 168.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…826fbacked Yes | 11c | 153.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…d523backed Yes | 15c | 132.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 110.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 75c | 107.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be5…27dbbacked Yes | 14c | 106.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…78e9backed Yes | 25c | 95.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…4920backed Yes | 16c | 64.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)Dricus Du Plessis won
- Will Dricus Du Plessis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Kamaru Usman win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.